Patterns in Thinking
For a while, I’ve been collecting “thought patterns.” Originally, they were logical fallacies, but then I broadened to include just about any identifiable pattern in how people think. Some of these are fallacies, but some are just bad habits, or ways of being wrong.
These could all be broadly categorized as “mental models.” Humans have studied these forever, but they’ve really become trendy in the last few years.
More than anything, I started writing these down just to understand them better, and to have an outlet to collect information about them. The more I read about them, the more I would see examples, and I wanted/needed a place to aggregate this stuff just to sort it out in my own head.
(Also worth reading as a counterpoint: The Mental Model Fallacy which argues that studying mental models doesn’t make us any smarter.)
This is not a strict, logical analysis, by any stretch. I am not a philosopher or a logician (though I did get a minor in Philosophy in college – yay liberal arts!). I am acutely aware that someone smarter or more well-read than me could probably tear these apart.
Also, know that these are constantly in flux. Some are fleshed out, and others are just stubs. As I noted above, I’ll keep adding to them and fleshing them out over time.
The patterns are listed below. Each has an objective description, may have some more opinionated commentary, and might have some additional links and some examples (see disclaimer below). If you like to browse, start with the first, and then there are next/previous links to navigate through them.
There’s also a bibliography below which lists quite a few books related to this topic.
I hope you enjoy them.
The Patterns
- The 1% Rule
- Action Bias
- The Anchoring Effect
- Anecdotalism
- Assumption of the Ability to Change or Recover
- Assumption of the Ability to Scale
- Availability Heuristic
- Avoidance of a Conclusion Due to Social Pressure
- Baader–Meinhof Phenomenon
- Begging the Question
- Cherry Picking
- Chesterton's Fence
- A Claim to Authority
- A Claim to Motive
- A Claim to Mystery or Faith
- A Claim to Obviousness
- A Claim to Simplicity or Purity
- Conflation of Specific and General
- Confusion of Cause and Effect
- Controversy Threshold
- Correlation vs. Causation
- Cumulative Error
- Death by Exactitude / Malicious Compliance
- Delayed Return Environment
- Double Standards
- Dunning–Kruger Effect
- Einstellung Effect
- Emotive Conjugation
- Explanation vs. Refutation
- The Fallibility of Surveys
- Fixation on Lack of Obstacles
- The Forer Effect
- Galls Law
- The Gambler's Fallacy
- Goodhart's Law
- Groupthink
- Gunslinger Effect
- Hickam's Dictum
- The Historian's Fallacy
- Horseshoe Theory
- The Idealism of our Future Self
- Ignoring of Inconvenient Evidence
- Induced Consumption
- In-Group Variegation Bias
- The Invalid Yet Gratifying Metaphor
- Irrational Desire for Consistency
- Last Place Aversion
- Loaded Words
- Loss Aversion
- The Mandela Effect
- Matthew Principle
- Memory Sanitization
- Meta-Perceptions
- Mis-attributing Distributed Decisions to a Single Entity
- Mistaken Agency
- Misunderstanding of Delayed Results
- The Myth of a Single Agenda
- The Myth of Necessary Revolution
- The Myth of "Overwhelmingly" Odds
- The Myth of the External Actor
- The Myth of the Outsider
- The Myth of the Transformational Leader
- The Myth of Universally Desired Efficiency
- Narrative Fallacy
- No True Scotsman
- Observer Effect
- Occam's Razor
- Overton Window
- The Paradox of Choice
- The Peltzman Effect
- People are Not All Good or All Bad
- Post Hoc Fallacy
- Proving a Negative
- Publication Bias
- Refutation by Association
- Refutation by Expectation
- Refutation by Right to Speak
- The Right to an Opinion
- Sample Bias
- Shifting the Burden of Proof
- Simpson's Paradox
- Stopped Clock Fallacy
- The Strawman Argument
- Streetlight Effect
- Theory of Constraints
- The Tragedy of the Commons
- Weasel Words
Example Disclaimer
I am a Democrat (I like to think I’m moderate, but to many people, if you’re a Democrat then you’re automatically a socialist liberal).
Many of my examples come from politics, because in this day and age, that tends to be the arena in which we disagree the most, and the one we lie to ourselves the most about our motivations and how the world works.
I tried to be balanced. For every example that showed the fallacy of a conservative, I tried to find one that showed the fallacy of a liberal. I also was careful about accuracy. I did research on each one to make sure I had my facts straight.
But know that when it comes to politics, everyonewill be able to argue with some of them. I realize there are some examples that won’t make youhappy, but they serve to illustrate the pattern, if nothing else.
Partial Bibliography
- Why We Make Mistakes: How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Way Above Average by Joseph Halliman (2009)
- Crimes Against Logic: Exposing the Bogus Arguments of Politicians, Priests, Journalists, and Other Serial Offenders by Jamie Whyte (2004)
- Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (2011)
- The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli (2014)
- The Decision Book: 50 Models For Strategic Thinking by Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschappeler (2018)
- The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts by Shane Parrish (2019)
- Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World by Carl Bergstrom (2020)
- You Are Not So Smart: Why You Have Too Many Friends on Facebook, Why Your Memory Is Mostly Fiction, an d 46 Other Ways You’re Deluding Yourself by David McRaney (2011)
- Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph Pherson and Richards Heuer Jr. (2020)
- How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg (2014)
- Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann (2019)