The Myth of “Overwhelmingly” Odds

By Deane Barker •

We often interpret 80% or 90% odds as near-certainty. But those odds are still 4 in 5 or 9 in 10. We fail to acknowledge that 80% odds of something still means there’s 20% odds of the other thing, and we’re somehow shocked when this happens. 20% seems small when compared to 80%, but it’s still 1 chance in 5.

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