The Historian’s Fallacy
Also known as: Hindsight Bias
When looking at a situation that (1) occurred in the past, or (2) that we are not as personally vested in, there is a tendency to make objective judgments and not understand why the actors in those situations did not come to the same judgments. We assume that the actors in those situations have the same decision making power, perspective, and objectivity as we do, separated by time and/or involvements.
Aphorisms
Steve Jobs:
You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future
Links
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The Hindsight Bias: No, you didn’t know it all along.
You tend to edit your memories so you don’t seem like a dimwit when things happen that you couldn’t have predicted.
Examples
There have been several claims that the leadership in Pearl Harbor in 1941 should have known that a Japanese attack was coming. All these claims recount multiple pieces of evidence that indicate an attack was imminent. But all of them are viewing this evidence through the lens of history, where we know what happened, and they don’t consider the mental state and perception of the soldiers on the ground at the time.